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Business Outlet Ranks Polk Among the Best in the Next Five Years

DESPITE A SLUGGISH HOUSING MARKET, as shown in this file photo of homes for sale in the Sundance housing development, at least one business news outlet thinks Polk County ranks among the "Best Housing Markets for the Next 5 Years." That's the title of a recent article on BusinessInsider.com, which features the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area along with a number of other Florida metros.

That's the title of a recent article on BusinessInsider.com, which features the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area (Polk) along with a number of other Florida metros. The article's authors highlighted 15 U.S. metros with the highest average annual percentage gains in home prices from the second quarter of 2011 through the same period in 2016, using projections from Fiserv Case-Shiller home price indexes.

Polk is projected to see average annual home price growth of 10.3 percent from 2011 through 2016, the sixth-highest figure among the 15 metros in the list. Carson City, Nev. tops the rankings with a 11.9 percent forecasted annual gain in prices.

The other Florida metros mentioned are Ocala at No. 7 (10.1 percent annual price gain); No. 10 Palm Coast (8.9 percent); a tie at No. 11 between Port St. Lucie and Panama City (8.8 percent); and No. 13 Melbourne (8.7 percent).

Here's what Business Insider said about Polk: "The housing crash (in prices) was brutal — 55 percent — and long — Q2 2006 through Q4 2011. But a 12.1 percent bounce back is coming in 2012."

Area economist Kevin Brickey said it's no shock the list included metro areas from states like Florida, Nevada (Carson City and Reno), Arizona (Flagstaff) and California (Napa).

"These places have had such a huge crash ... I'm not surprised to see a number of markets that have had very deep (price) corrections," said Brickey, a Hillsborough County government economist who follows Polk. "I was of the opinion that we probably over-corrected on housing prices, and at some point a nice little bounce back — not a complete bounce back — would be coming."

Florida is known for its historically strong population growth, and the combination of new residents and jobs should drive housing demand as the economy recovers, Brickey said. But despite the inclusion of several Florida metros among the "best housing markets," Brickey said it's difficult to truly predict when prices will rebound.

"I agree with the premise, I just wouldn't start partying yet," he said.

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