Product Key Recovery

Hopes of economic recovery in Europe

This is one of the key findings of the GfK Consumer Climate Europe survey which provides an overview of the development of economic, price and income expectations and willingness to buy among consumers in Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain and the UK. These 11 countries account for around 80% of the total population of the 27 EU member states.

The recession in Europe appears to have bottomed out, and the economy in most European countries is beginning to recover from the worst downturn since the second world war. In many countries, the economic data have for the first time returned to a slight upward trend since the first quarter of this year. However, the consequences of the financial and economic crisis have by no means been overcome yet. Many consumers are still unsettled and unconvinced that the upswing in their respective countries will be sustained. Some countries are still faced with difficulties following the financial crisis and its effects – most notably Greece. Uncertainty about how the situation will progress there, as well as in Ireland and Portugal, is affecting consumer confidence in the economic development of their respective countries. In almost all countries monitored in the survey, the recession appears to have bottomed out. In general, economic expectations have risen in the second quarter, or at least remained steady at levels recorded in March. Many consumers are hopeful that their country can overcome the crisis in the medium term. The exceptions are Austria, where the indicator has dropped since the start of the year, and the Czech Republic. Germany continues to be the growth driver in Europe: the indicator currently stands at 50.3 points there. Despite an anticipated growth level of 1.9% for this year, the Czech population has little confidence in the country’s economy at present. This is reflected in consumers’ economic expectations which reached their lowest level (-48.1 points) since the beginning of 2006, when records began. The principal reasons for this uncertainty can be found in the country itself: the Czech government is in crisis. Citizens fear that the announced reforms, in particular pensions reform, will not be implemented on schedule, and the fact that unemployment is set to climb in the second half of the year is a further concern. Together with the ongoing rise in food and energy costs, these prospects are causing Czechs to take a rather pessimistic view of how the national economy will develop over the coming months. Economic expectations in Greece appear to have briefly stabilized, remaining steady in the second quarter, although the level is still extremely low: the indicator now stands at -54.7 points. Nevertheless, the austerity measures being imposed by the Greek government – the condition for receiving EU aid – mean that Greek citizens face even deeper cuts, and this will have a knock-on effect on the country’s economy as protesters make their voices heard. It is now extremely important that the Greek government includes the country’s high earners and economic elite in the savings measures and finally manages to curtail the black economy, otherwise efforts at budgetary consolidation will not be successful and accepted by the population.

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